The Best Dow Stock For The Rest Of The Year

Do you think the Dow Jones Industrial Average is headed for 12,000? If so, that of the thirty components are majority expected to lead the index by that benchmark?This week end on Forbes on Fox Michael Ozanian, Neil Weinberg and I each picked the favorites. In the fair and balanced tradition, the Fox News producers additionally asked us to take issue with each others picks. Click here to see the video of us violence up on each other. As you know, Forbes tends towards the value-minded proceed when it comes to picking stocks. Neil and Mike opted to hang with that. I opted not to abstain from it, given I think worth investing is less beneficial for these kinds of short-term plays.Neils preference was Verizon Communications ( VZ - news - people ), the New York-based telecom giant. The batch has been a sum slouch lately, so most so that its charity a 6.4% yield, that is flattering breathtaking. Neils quite lustful of Verizons mobile-phone business, that accounts for 41% of the revenue. People have been speculating perpetually that Verizon will find a approach to cut a understanding with Cupertino, Calif.-based Apple ( AAPL - news - people ) and proceed charity Verizon commercial operation the iPhone.Mike pronounced the hit on Verizon is that even though its a great company, Verizons battling Cablevision over maintaining commercial operation for the human phone line division. Even if Verizon hangs in there, Mike figured the foe could stroke their margins in a bad way.Mikes collect was Chevron ( CVX - news - people ), formed in San Ramon, Calif. The hum about the oil commercial operation has cooled a bit given 2008, but commercial operation is good. Mike records that the crack spread," thats the distinction domain when you modify inorganic substance in to gasoline, is widening. That will assistance Chevron.My beef with Chevron--its unequivocally a hit on both the oil association and Neils telecom pick--is that the companys a small as well protected a pick. The batch has a really low beta. That is, when the batch marketplace rises or falls, it has been the robe of Chevron shares to move up or down most less than the normal share. Yes, beta is a backwards-looking measure, but I disbelief anything has changed. Im betting that if the Dow rises 9.1% to 12,000 that Chevron will climb far less than 9%.I disagree that if youre going to peril a small income on the Dow zooming up to 12,000, youre improved off shopping a batch thats most riskier, most some-more volatile. The Dow member with the top beta of all is Bank of America, of Charlotte, N.C. In addition, the options have the second-highest implied volatility of any Dow stock, that equates to that options traders hold the shares are really expected to outperform bonds if the complete marketplace rises. And similar to it or not, this unsure batch comes with idealisation word policy: The supervision has shown that its peaceful to behind the association up if anything big goes wrong.You know, Stephane, I"m abashed of you, pronounced Neil. Buying a batch thats up five-fold in the past year, he said, is bad investing. (Thats probably a view that any worth financier would determine with.) Additionally, Neil said, the complaint of Goldman Sachs could drain over and means problems for Bank of America.Im not certain I longed for to have my trainer abashed of me on my really initial time out with the Forbes on Fox panel. But so be it. By the way, if you similar to my thought of shopping a rarely flighty batch but dont caring for owning unsure Bank of America, try American Express ( AXP - news - people ) or Alcoa ( AA - news - people ), that are really scarcely as flighty as Bank of America but dont have half as most baggage.
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